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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ARI
70.6%
NO
29.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ARI: Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.303 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.134 EPA/dropback
  • ARI offense: +0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ARI 25
–
NO 18
Projected margin: ARI by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

ARI

Will Hernandez G Out Knee
Owen Pappoe LB Questionable Quadricep
Dante Stills DT Questionable Heel

NO

Chase Young DE Out Calf
Trevor Penning G Out Toe
Jordan Howden S Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 20
–
NO 13

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:07 FG ARI (5:07) 38-C.Ryland 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 3 – NO 0
  • Q2 14:26 TD NO (14:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – NO 6
  • Q2 10:10 TD ARI (10:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – NO 7
  • Q2 05:02 FG NO (5:02) 19-B.Grupe 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. ARI 10 – NO 10
  • Q2 00:32 TD ARI (:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 6-J.Conner for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – NO 10
  • Q3 09:21 FG ARI (9:21) 38-C.Ryland 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 20 – NO 10
  • Q4 02:44 FG NO (2:44) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. ARI 20 – NO 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:46) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 34 for 7 yards (58-C.Rumph; 53-J.Ford).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 12 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 89%

    (5:07) 38-C.Ryland 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (5:02) 19-B.Grupe 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:34) 32-K.Kroeger punts 50 yards to ARI 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 12 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%

    (9:21) 38-C.Ryland 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (3:59) 19-B.Grupe 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 34 yards to NO 27, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:59) 32-K.Kroeger punts 54 yards to ARI 6, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 6 for no gain.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:16) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to NO 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. ** Injury Update: ARI-25-Z.Collins has returned to the game.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:57) 32-K.Kroeger punts 51 yards to ARI 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at NO 40 for 23 yards (88-J.Stoll).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (4:40) 38-C.Ryland 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-B.Bresee), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (2:44) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 19 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to NO 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 42 for 11 yards (4-G.Dortch; 25-Z.Collins).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 89%

    (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed to ARI 18 for 6 yards (0-W.Johnson).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.13 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave.