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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 10 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 32-K.Kroeger punts 50 yards to ARI 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.53 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model