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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 10 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 19-B.Grupe 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model