4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 10 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(13:59) 32-K.Kroeger punts 54 yards to ARI 6, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 6 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.59 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model