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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 88

New Orleans Saints 10 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 32-K.Kroeger punts 51 yards to ARI 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at NO 40 for 23 yards (88-J.Stoll).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.28 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 88, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model