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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 28

Arizona Cardinals 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 38-C.Ryland 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-B.Bresee), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model