Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 19 at the 83

Arizona Cardinals 20 – New Orleans Saints 13

(2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to NO 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 42 for 11 yards (4-G.Dortch; 25-Z.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.48 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 83, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model