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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 18

New Orleans Saints 13 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +2.31 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 18, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.13 EP