4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 24

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 38-C.Ryland 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.97 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model