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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Carolina Panthers
4th & 1 at the 5
Carolina Panthers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20
What Actually Happened
(9:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 17-X.Legette.
The Three Options
GO
+3.95 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 5, worth +0.10 EP
KICK
+1.45 EP
- 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
