4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CAR
47.4%
JAX
52.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.059 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CAR 23
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CAR

Damarri Mathis CB Out Knee
Ikem Ekwonu T Doubtful Illness

JAX

Montaric Brown CB Out Ankle
Wyatt Milum G Out Knee
Cole Van Lanen T Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 10
–
JAX 26

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:18 FG JAX (8:18) 39-C.Little 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CAR 0 – JAX 3
  • Q1 00:41 FG CAR (:41) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 3 – JAX 3
  • Q2 08:38 TD JAX (8:38) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 84-H.Long for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – JAX 9
  • Q2 01:55 TD JAX (1:55) 7-B.Thomas left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – JAX 16
  • Q2 00:06 FG JAX (:06) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PENALTY on CAR-95-D.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CAR 3 – JAX 20
  • Q4 07:12 FG JAX (7:12) 39-C.Little 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CAR 3 – JAX 23
  • Q4 04:54 TD CAR (4:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – JAX 23
  • Q4 02:00 FG JAX (2:00) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CAR 10 – JAX 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:47) 5-D.Brown right end to JAX 41 for 4 yards (21-N.Scott).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (8:18) 39-C.Little 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 81%

    (:41) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to CAR 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 16 for no gain.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 62%

    (3:51) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to JAX 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-B.Martin-Scott.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (9:51) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 17-X.Legette.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 83-D.Moore to CAR 41 for 4 yards (26-An.Johnson). PENALTY on CAR-31-C.Thornton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:52) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to JAX 7, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-P.Washington to JAX 20 for 13 yards (36-D.Richardson; 87-B.Tremayne). Penalty on JAX-36-L.Allen, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at JAX 14. Penalty on CAR-11-N.Scourton, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 76%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 4-T.McMillan (3-T.Campbell).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 74%

    (10:44) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to CAR 31 for 3 yards (97-B.Brown; 94-A.Robinson).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (7:12) 39-C.Little 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.