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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 91

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 83-D.Moore to CAR 41 for 4 yards (26-An.Johnson). PENALTY on CAR-31-C.Thornton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.80 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model