Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to JAX 7, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-P.Washington to JAX 20 for 13 yards (36-D.Richardson; 87-B.Tremayne). Penalty on JAX-36-L.Allen, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at JAX 14. Penalty on CAR-11-N.Scourton, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.70 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model