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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 18

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 39-C.Little 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.23 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model