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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 17

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 39-C.Little 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.54 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model