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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Thursday 2025-09-04 · 20:20 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DAL
21.7%
PHI
78.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.212 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 17
–
PHI 27
Projected margin: PHI by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

DAL

Perrion Winfrey DT Out Back

PHI

Tanner McKee QB Out Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20
–
PHI 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:52 TD DAL (11:52) 33-J.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – PHI 0
  • Q1 06:01 TD PHI (6:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – PHI 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – PHI 7
  • Q2 06:58 TD PHI (6:58) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – PHI 13
  • Q2 02:38 FG DAL (2:38) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 17 – PHI 14
  • Q2 00:56 TD PHI (:56) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – PHI 20
  • Q2 00:03 FG DAL (:03) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 20 – PHI 21
  • Q3 08:35 FG PHI (8:35) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. DAL 20 – PHI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

    (2:38) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 54%

    (8:35) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:18) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to DAL 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 26%

    (14:53) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:27) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to DAL 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: DAL-29-C.Goodwin has returned to the game.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:50) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to PHI 24, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (3:09) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to DAL 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb.