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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to PHI 24, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.42 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model