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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 22

New England Patriots 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 36-A.Borregales 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model