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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
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NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

LV
48.1%
NE
51.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): -0.056 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LV 22
–
NE 23
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

LV

No players on the report.

NE

Christian Gonzalez CB Out Hamstring
Charles Woods CB Out Groin
Will Campbell T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 20
–
NE 13

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:23 TD LV (12:23) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 1-T.Tucker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – NE 0
  • Q1 01:06 TD NE (1:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – NE 6
  • Q2 02:00 FG NE (2:00) 36-A.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. LV 7 – NE 10
  • Q3 09:44 TD LV (9:44) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – NE 10
  • Q3 00:56 FG LV (:56) 8-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 17 – NE 10
  • Q4 06:50 FG LV (6:50) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 20 – NE 10
  • Q4 00:22 FG NE (:22) 36-A.Borregales 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. LV 20 – NE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 31%

    (10:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to LV 5, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:21) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to NE 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-M.Jones to NE 26 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 17 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (9:11) 36-A.Borregales 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:49) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to NE 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 36-A.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to LV 26, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to LV 20, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-44-K.Chaisson.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 20 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:33) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback. PENALTY on LV-49-C.Snowden, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 20.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to LV 13, Center-47-J.Ashby. 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 30 for 17 yards (51-J.Gibbens). PENALTY on LV-44-T.Eichenberg, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 26.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 77%

    (:56) 8-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 33%

    (13:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to LV 12, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 64%

    (9:25) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to NE 30 for 8 yards (53-C.Elliss).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 91%

    (6:50) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:53) 17-B.Baringer punts 21 yards to LV 35, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%

    (1:55) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 27%

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 13-M.Hollins to 50 for 3 yards (36-K.Kelly).