Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New England Patriots 7

(7:49) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to NE 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model