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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 17

New England Patriots 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 36-A.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.99 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP