Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback. PENALTY on LV-49-C.Snowden, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.28 EP
75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model