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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 51

New England Patriots 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to LV 5, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.38 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model