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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 38

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to NE 30 for 8 yards (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.54 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model