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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.48 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP