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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 53

New England Patriots 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 13-M.Hollins to 50 for 3 yards (36-K.Kelly).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.38 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -1.45 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model