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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 17-R.Wright punts 31 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP