MIN @ CHI — 4th & Data

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HC Kevin O'Connell

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HC Ben Johnson

Monday 2025-09-08 · 20:15 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

MIN

54.6%

CHI

45.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CHI defense: +0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
MIN offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
CHI offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
QB edge to CHI: Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.052 vs J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.198 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23

–

CHI 20

Projected margin: MIN by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

MIN

Zavier Scott RB Out Ankle

Elijah Williams DT Out Hamstring

Harrison Smith S Doubtful Illness

Christian Darrisaw T Questionable Knee

CHI

T.J. Edwards LB Doubtful Hamstring

Jaylon Johnson CB Questionable Calf

Josh Blackwell CB Questionable Groin

Kyler Gordon CB Questionable Hamstring

Roschon Johnson RB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 27

–

CHI 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:12 TD CHI (7:12) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – CHI 6
Q2 12:51 FG MIN (12:51) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 3 – CHI 7
Q2 00:28 FG CHI (:28) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. MIN 3 – CHI 10
Q2 00:11 FG MIN (:11) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 6 – CHI 10
Q3 13:03 TD CHI (13:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-N.Wright at CHI 26. 26-N.Wright for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CHI 16
Q4 12:18 TD MIN (12:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – CHI 17
Q4 09:52 TD MIN (9:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 33-A.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CHI-26-N.Wright has returned to the game. MIN 18 – CHI 17
Q4 02:59 TD MIN (2:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 26 – CHI 17
Q4 02:05 TD CHI (2:05) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – CHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 68

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP

p(convert) 58%

(12:58) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to CHI 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 39 for 22 yards (55-E.Wilson; 42-A.DePaola).
Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(5:04) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 25 for 7 yards (15-D.Turner; 37-T.Thomas).
Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(1:04) 19-T.Taylor punts 39 yards to MIN 19, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 14

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

(12:51) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 24

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 88%

(8:59) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Moore.
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP

p(convert) 74%

(6:58) 17-R.Wright punts 31 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(6:03) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 24 for 9 yards (92-D.Hardy; 33-J.Jones).
Q2 MIN 4th & 18 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(4:39) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to CHI 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 41 for 8 yards (13-T.Felton).
Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 88%

(:28) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(14:41) 19-T.Taylor punts 47 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to CHI 49 for 20 yards (36-J.Owens).
Q3 MIN 4th & 20 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(10:18) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to CHI 30, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 36 for 6 yards (13-T.Felton). PENALTY on CHI-43-C.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.
Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(7:27) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to MIN 6, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 23 for 17 yards (22-E.Hicks).
Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 69

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP

p(convert) 65%

(5:53) 17-R.Wright punts 45 yards to CHI 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 76%

(15:00) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(10:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 56 yards to MIN 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to 50 for 22 yards (22-E.Hicks; 46-S.Daly).
Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(7:38) 19-T.Taylor punts 25 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-46-S.Daly.
Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 69 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(:16) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to CHI 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.