Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 7

(4:39) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to CHI 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 41 for 8 yards (13-T.Felton).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.57 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model