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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 78

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(14:41) 19-T.Taylor punts 47 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to CHI 49 for 20 yards (36-J.Owens).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model