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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 57

Chicago Bears 17 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to MIN 6, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 23 for 17 yards (22-E.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model