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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 17-R.Wright punts 45 yards to CHI 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.45 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP