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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 25 for 7 yards (15-D.Turner; 37-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.19 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model