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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 2

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(14:00) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.53 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP