Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYG offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- WAS offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- WAS defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- NYG defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
NYG
WAS
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:03 TD WAS (7:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – WAS 6
- Q2 14:00 FG NYG (14:00) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – WAS 7
- Q2 06:19 TD WAS (6:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – WAS 13
- Q3 01:47 FG NYG (1:47) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 6 – WAS 14
- Q4 07:16 TD WAS (7:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-D.Samuel left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – WAS 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:42) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 23 for 11 yards (35-P.Butler).
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Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(11:13) 12-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to WAS 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton). PENALTY on WAS-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 21.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%
(14:00) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(13:17) 10-T.Way punts 64 yards to NYG 5, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 15 for 10 yards (57-N.Bellore).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 76Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EPp(convert) 72%
(11:47) 12-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to WAS 42, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(12:33) 12-J.Gillan punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(9:28) 10-T.Way punts 31 yards to NYG 29, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-69-T.Ott.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(8:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to WAS 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 49%
(7:12) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 71Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(5:43) 3-R.Wilson right guard to NYG 31 for 2 yards (92-D.Armstrong).
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Q3 NYG 4th & 14 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 66%
(1:47) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.06 EPp(convert) 74% p(FG) 30%
(14:19) 10-T.Way punts 42 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 12 for 3 yards (80-C.Yankoff).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 30%
(12:14) 12-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 99%
(2:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson.