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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 76

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 12-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to WAS 42, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.09 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP