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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 65

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 12-J.Gillan punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model