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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 56

Washington Commanders 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.68 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP