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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 37

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model