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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 74

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 12-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to WAS 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton). PENALTY on WAS-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.12 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model