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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 51

Washington Commanders 14 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 10-T.Way punts 42 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 12 for 3 yards (80-C.Yankoff).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.50 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 51, worth -3.46 EP
KICK -2.10 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.01 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.45 EP
PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.06 EP