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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 3 at the 3
New York Giants 6 – Washington Commanders 21
What Actually Happened
(2:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson.
The Three Options
GO
+1.83 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.09 EP
- 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth -0.91 EP
KICK
+1.10 EP
- 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT
-0.91 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
