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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 33

New York Jets 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.19 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model