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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

PIT
42.4%
NYJ
57.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: +0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Justin Fields (NYJ): -0.026 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21
–
NYJ 23
Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PIT

Derrick Harmon DT Out Knee
Skylar Thompson QB Questionable Hamstring
Nick Herbig LB Questionable Hamstring

NYJ

Alijah Vera-Tucker G Out Triceps
Esa Pole T Out Ankle
Chukwuma Okorafor T Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 34
–
NYJ 32

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:19 FG NYJ (9:19) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. PIT 0 – NYJ 3
  • Q1 03:44 TD PIT (3:44) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 15-B.Skowronek for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – NYJ 3
  • Q1 00:31 TD NYJ (:31) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – NYJ 9
  • Q2 13:30 FG PIT (13:30) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. PIT 10 – NYJ 9
  • Q2 10:09 TD NYJ (10:09) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – NYJ 15
  • Q2 02:59 FG NYJ (2:59) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. PIT 10 – NYJ 19
  • Q2 00:37 TD PIT (:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – NYJ 19
  • Q3 03:49 TD NYJ (3:49) (No Huddle) 7-J.Fields right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 17 – NYJ 25
  • Q4 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 23 – NYJ 26
  • Q4 14:12 TD PIT (14:12) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 19-C.Austin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 30 – NYJ 26
  • Q4 07:06 TD NYJ (7:06) 7-J.Fields right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-76-J.Simpson was injured during the play. PIT 31 – NYJ 32
  • Q4 01:08 FG PIT (1:08) 9-C.Boswell 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. PIT 34 – NYJ 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (9:19) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 67%

    (13:30) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:54) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to NYJ 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 3-X.Gipson.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 76%

    (2:59) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:15) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to NYJ 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 3-X.Gipson.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (11:37) 14-A.McNamara punts 39 yards to PIT 38, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-47-A.Beck. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 38.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 32 for 19 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (7:06) 7-J.Fields right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-76-J.Simpson was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:21) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to PIT 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 42 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%

    (1:08) 9-C.Boswell 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson (5-J.Ramsey). NYJ-5-G.Wilson was injured during the play.