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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – New York Jets 19

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 32 for 19 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.23 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model