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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 74

New York Jets 32 – Pittsburgh Steelers 31

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to PIT 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.23 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model