Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 7-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 30 for 12 yards (48-T.Bethune). PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 30.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model