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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

SF
38.9%
SEA
61.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.150 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SF 22
–
SEA 25
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

SF

Jordan Watkins WR Doubtful Ankle
Jordan James RB Doubtful Finger
Christian McCaffrey RB Questionable Calf

SEA

Uchenna Nwosu LB Out Knee
Dareke Young WR Out Hamstring
Jake Bobo WR Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 17
–
SEA 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:47 TD SF (3:47) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – SEA 0
  • Q2 13:41 TD SEA (13:41) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – SEA 6
  • Q2 00:07 FG SEA (:07) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 7 – SEA 10
  • Q4 09:45 FG SF (9:45) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 10 – SEA 10
  • Q4 03:28 FG SEA (3:28) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 10 – SEA 13
  • Q4 01:44 TD SF (1:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 88-J.Tonges for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-D.Hall]. SF 16 – SEA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 39%

    (12:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to SF 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-81-E.Saubert. PENALTY on SF-27-J.Brown, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SF 10.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:15) 7-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 30 for 12 yards (48-T.Bethune). PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 30.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to SF 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 14 for 6 yards (38-B.Russell, 44-C.Surratt).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:11) 7-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to SF 35, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 33. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at SF 34 for 1 yard (28-N.Pritchett).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (1:00) 4-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (10:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to SF 7, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 25 for 18 yards (81-E.Saubert).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 80%

    (4:33) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 89-L.Farrell to SEA 26 for 4 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 93%

    (2:21) 4-J.Moody 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-J.Love), Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at SEA 23. 0-D.Lawrence to SEA 31 for 8 yards (68-C.McKivitz).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (11:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SEA 8 for 6 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (9:45) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to SF 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at SF 30 for 14 yards (88-A.Barner).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

    (3:28) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.