Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(11:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to SF 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore to SF 14 for 6 yards (38-B.Russell, 44-C.Surratt).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model