Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(8:11) 7-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.65 EP
60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model